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Gambling Man by Lionel Barber, framework 8 of 8

Elliott's SoftBank playbook

How the activist fund approached Masa and what it asked him to do.

Lionel Barber's framework, from Gambling Man, pp. 235 to 296.

  1. Build a stake quietly

    Buy bite-sized chunks until holding about 3 per cent, around $3bn, then tell the company privately.

  2. Show the discount against a peer

    Compare SoftBank's discount with Berkshire Hathaway, which trades above net asset value.

  3. Speak to his vanity and sense of injustice

    Frame the gap as unfair and the buy-back as a way to prove he is right.

  4. Propose the menu

    Sell assets, buy back about $20bn of shares and change the board.

  5. Step back as the board acts

    Let Masa announce $40bn of asset sales and $24bn of buy-backs on his own terms.

From chapter: PART FIVE: HUBRIS, pp. 235–296

Part Five covers 2016 to 2022. Masa raises the SoftBank Vision Fund from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar, claims a 44 per cent IRR, and promises Donald Trump 50,000 jobs. He backs Adam Neumann at WeWork on a napkin contract, pushes the valuation to $47bn, and then cancels the buyout in December 2018. WeWork collapses in October 2019, Elliott Management exposes the conglomerate discount, and the Covid crash forces $40bn of asset sales and $24bn of buy-backs. The Nasdaq whale trades through Northstar, the board loses executives, and Masa retreats in 2022 with a theme of defence.

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